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Schools of Thought

Keynesian Economics

Also Known As Keynesianism
Keynesian, New Keynesian and Post-Keynesian Economics

Keynesian economics grew out of the work of the British economist John Maynard Keynes, whose 1936 book The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money argued that a market economy can settle into a persistent state of high unemployment because total spending, or aggregate demand, falls short of what is needed to employ everyone willing to work. Keynes broke with the classical assumption that markets adjust quickly and reliably back to full employment on their own, and he argued that government spending, tax policy and monetary policy could be used deliberately to manage the business cycle, raising demand during a downturn and restraining it during a boom. Keynesian ideas shaped mainstream economic policy across much of the world from the 1940s through the 1970s, informed the design of the postwar Bretton Woods international monetary system, and continue today in modified forms, often called New Keynesian economics, that combine Keynesian demand management with more formal attention to individual decision making and market expectations.

Facts
Start Year
1936 1
Core Tenet
Aggregate demand drives output and employment in the short run, and government spending or monetary policy can be used to stabilize the business cycle when private demand falls short. 2
Connections

Associated Figures and Events

1970s Stagflation, Events

Why this is disputed. Keynesian accounts attribute 1970s stagflation primarily to cost push pressure from the 1973 oil embargo and other supply shocks, which raised prices even as they contracted aggregate supply and slowed growth.

Source Wikipedia
Additional Source Wikipedia: Great Depression
2008 Financial Crisis, Events

Why this is disputed. Keynesian analysis of the 2008 financial crisis centers on the policy response required once the crisis hit, arguing that aggressive fiscal stimulus and monetary easing were needed to prevent the collapse in private demand from producing a downturn as severe and prolonged as the Great Depression.

Source The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics
Source Wikipedia
Bretton Woods Conference, Events

John Maynard Keynes led the British delegation at Bretton Woods and proposed an international clearing union, a plan that shaped the negotiations even though the final agreement followed the rival American plan, put forward by Harry Dexter White, more closely.

Source Encyclopaedia Britannica
Source Wikipedia
Source The General Theory of Employment, Interest and MoneyJohn Maynard Keynes
Great Depression, Events

Why this is disputed. Keynesians read the Depression as a demand collapse from a loss of confidence, a reading Monetarists and Austrians each contest on different grounds; see the entity's own description for the three-way dispute.

Source The General Theory of Employment, Interest and MoneyJohn Maynard Keynes
Gross Domestic Product, Concepts

National income accounting rose alongside Keynesian demand-management policy needs from the 1930s and 1940s.

Source The General Theory of Employment, Interest and MoneyJohn Maynard Keynes
Source James Tobin (Wikipedia)
Joan Robinson, Economists

Robinson worked alongside Keynes at Cambridge in the 1930s and became one of the earliest and most committed Keynesians after 1936, before her later work moved into a post-Keynesian and neo-Ricardian critique of mainstream economics that set her apart from the Keynesian mainstream.

Source Wikipedia
Source The General Theory of Employment, Interest and MoneyJohn Maynard Keynes
Source The General Theory of Employment, Interest and MoneyJohn Maynard Keynes
Okun's Law, Concepts

Arthur Okun, who formulated the law, worked within the Keynesian tradition relating output gaps to unemployment.

Source Wikipedia
Additional Source Okun's law (Wikipedia)
Phillips Curve, Concepts

Why this is disputed. Early Keynesians read the relationship as a usable short-run policy trade-off between inflation and unemployment.

Source The Relation between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861-1957

Keynesians generally support unconventional monetary expansion as a demand-support tool when policy rates are near zero.

Source The General Theory of Employment, Interest and MoneyJohn Maynard Keynes

Wikipedia's own infobox names Keynesian economics as Kahn's school or tradition. He was one of the five members of Keynes' Cambridge Circus and one of Keynes' closest collaborators on The General Theory, introducing the multiplier in his own 1931 article that Keynes built into the book's policy argument (already recorded on this atlas via the Fiscal Multiplier concept).

Source Wikipedia

Held Differently

Business Cycle, Concepts

Why this is disputed. Keynesians attribute the cycle chiefly to swings in aggregate demand and investor confidence (animal spirits).

Source The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics
Inflation, Concepts

Why this is disputed. Keynesians read inflation as arising from demand-pull or cost-push pressure specific to circumstances, a different causal emphasis from the Monetarist claim already on record here that inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.

Source The General Theory of Employment, Interest and MoneyJohn Maynard Keynes
Weimar Republic Hyperinflation, Events

Why this is disputed. Keynes himself, in The Economic Consequences of the Peace, weighted reparations and the external transfer problem more heavily than domestic money creation as the crisis' root cause, a reading later monetary historians (e.g. Bresciani-Turroni) contested.

Source Encyclopaedia Britannica
New Keynesian Economics, Schools of Thought

New Keynesian economics preserves the original Keynesian conclusion, that demand shocks have real effects and stabilization policy can help, but replaces its ad hoc assumptions with explicit microeconomic foundations original Keynesian theory lacked.

Source Wikipedia
Stockholm School, Schools of Thought

The Stockholm School reached conclusions close to Keynes's General Theory independently and largely in parallel, not by following his lead, a genuinely separate account of the same insight rather than a derivative or a rejection of it.

Source Wikipedia
Supply-Side Economics, Schools of Thought

Why this is disputed. Supply-side economics emerged as an alternative to Keynesian demand management, arguing that expanding aggregate supply through lower marginal tax rates and lighter regulation, not stimulating aggregate demand, is the effective route to growth.

Source Wikipedia

Associated With

The synthesis absorbed Keynesian short-run demand management wholesale as its own short-run half, the channel through which Keynes's own ideas reached postwar textbooks and policy.

Source Wikipedia

Critiqued Here

Robert Lucas Jr., Economists

The 1976 Lucas critique argued that large Keynesian macroeconometric models, estimated from past policy regimes, cannot reliably predict the effects of a new policy because rational agents change behavior in response to it, challenging the foundations of Keynesian macroeconomic modeling of the era.

Source Wikipedia

Rejected Here

Austrian School, Schools of Thought

Why this is disputed. Austrian business cycle theory treats a recession as the necessary correction of malinvestment caused by an artificial credit expansion, not a demand shortfall to be offset by government stimulus; Austrians hold that Keynesian stimulus delays the correction and can seed a new boom-bust cycle.

Source Wikipedia
Monetarist Economics, Schools of Thought

Why this is disputed. Milton Friedman's monetarism holds that controlling the growth rate of the money supply, not fiscal spending, is the effective and non-inflationary way to manage the business cycle, directly challenging the Keynesian reliance on fiscal policy to fight downturns.

Source Wikipedia
New Classical Economics, Schools of Thought

Why this is disputed. New classical economists blamed 1970s stagflation on Keynesian demand-management policy, and Robert Lucas's Lucas critique argues Keynesian macro-econometric models lack the microeconomic foundations needed to predict how agents actually respond to a policy change.

Source Wikipedia

Long-Form Articles

Sources
1. The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money
John Maynard Keynes, 1936
  • Chapter 3: The Principle of Effective Demand
    The value of D at the point of the aggregate demand function, where it is intersected by the aggregate supply function, will be called the effective demand.
  • Associated Figures and Events: John Maynard Keynes
  • Associated Figures and Events: Gross Domestic Product
  • Associated Figures and Events: Quantitative Easing
  • Associated Figures and Events: Inflation
  • Associated Figures and Events: Great Depression, Chapter 22
    Keynesians argue the depression stemmed from collapsed consumer confidence and investment, caused by a widespread loss of confidence that led to drastically lower investment and persistent underconsumption.
  • Associated Figures and Events: Fiscal Multiplier, Chapter 10
    The fiscal multiplier is a foundation of Keynesian stimulus arguments.
  • Associated Figures and Events: Liquidity Trap, Chapter 15
    Keynes described the liquidity trap in The General Theory, a foundational Keynesian concept.
2. The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics
Palgrave Macmillan
Encyclopaedia Britannica
Encyclopaedia Britannica, Inc.View the Source
Wikipedia
Wikimedia Foundation
  • Associated Figures and Events: Joan Robinson
  • Debated With: New Classical Economics, New classical macroeconomics, criticism of Keynesian models
  • Debated With: Supply-Side Economics, Supply-side economics, relation to Keynesian economics
  • Debated With: Monetarist Economics, Monetarism, lead section
    criticising Keynes's theory of fighting economic downturns using fiscal policy (e.g. government spending)
  • Debated With: Austrian School, Austrian business cycle theory, Mechanism
    The 'recession' or 'depression' is actually the process by which the economy adjusts to the wastes and errors of the monetary boom, and reestablishes efficient service of sustainable consumer desires.
  • Associated With: Robert Lucas Jr., Robert Lucas Jr., Research contributions
    In 1976, Lucas challenged the foundations of macroeconomic theory...arguing that a macroeconomic model should be built as an aggregated version of microeconomic models
  • Associated With: New Keynesian Economics, New Keynesian economics, lead section
    New Keynesians provided rigorous microfoundations that original Keynesian theory lacked.
  • Associated With: Neoclassical Synthesis, Neoclassical synthesis, lead section
    an academic movement...that attempted to reconcile John Maynard Keynes's macroeconomic theories with neoclassical economics
  • Associated With: Stockholm School, Stockholm school (economics), Relation to Keynesian economics
    If his contribution had been available to readers of English before 1936, it is interesting to speculate whether the revolution in macroeconomic theory of the depression decade would be referred to as Myrdalian as much as Keynesian.
  • Associated Figures and Events: Richard Kahn, Richard Kahn, Baron Kahn, Lead section
    Kahn was one of the five members of Keynes' Cambridge Circus... one of Keynes' closest collaborators on the creation of Keynes' General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money.
  • Associated Figures and Events: Asian Financial Crisis (1997-98), 1997 Asian financial crisis, IMF structural adjustment response
    Critics, however, noted the contractionary nature of these policies, arguing that in a recession, the traditional Keynesian response was to increase government spending, prop up major companies, and lower interest rates.
  • Associated Figures and Events: European Debt Crisis, European sovereign debt crisis, Less austerity, more investment section
    US economist and Nobel laureate Paul Krugman argues that an abrupt return to "'non-Keynesian' financial policies" is not a viable solution. Pointing at historical evidence, he predicts that deflationary policies now being imposed on countries such as Greece and Spain will prolong and deepen their recessions.
View the Source
The Relation between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861-1957
Associated Figures and Events: Phillips Curve
James Tobin (Wikipedia)
Wikimedia FoundationAssociated Figures and Events: James Tobin, Lead section
Quote, Associated Figures and Events: James Tobin, Lead section
James Tobin was an American economist who served on the Council of Economic Advisers and taught at Yale University. He contributed to the development of key ideas in Keynesian economics and advocated government intervention to stabilize output and avoid recessions.
View the Source
Wikipedia: Great Depression
Associated Figures and Events: 1970s StagflationView the Source
Okun's law (Wikipedia)
Associated Figures and Events: Okun's LawView the Source
Dissenting Readings (1 dissenting reading)
Associated Figures and Events: Phillips Curve

The Keynesian reading of a stable, policy-usable trade-off between inflation and unemployment fails once expectations adjust. Attempting to hold unemployment below its natural rate through persistent inflation only works as long as workers and firms are systematically surprised by the inflation; once they come to expect it, the trade-off vanishes and the long-run Phillips Curve is vertical at the natural rate, so demand management can shift the timing but not the average level of unemployment.

A dissenting reading, from Milton FriedmanThe Role of Monetary Policy
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