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Schools of Thought

Keynesian Economics

Also Known As Keynesianism
Keynesian, New Keynesian and Post-Keynesian Economics

Keynesian economics grew out of the work of the British economist John Maynard Keynes, whose 1936 book The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money argued that a market economy can settle into a persistent state of high unemployment because total spending, or aggregate demand, falls short of what is needed to employ everyone willing to work. Keynes broke with the classical assumption that markets adjust quickly and reliably back to full employment on their own, and he argued that government spending, tax policy and monetary policy could be used deliberately to manage the business cycle, raising demand during a downturn and restraining it during a boom. Keynesian ideas shaped mainstream economic policy across much of the world from the 1940s through the 1970s, informed the design of the postwar Bretton Woods international monetary system, and continue today in modified forms, often called New Keynesian economics, that combine Keynesian demand management with more formal attention to individual decision making and market expectations.

Facts
Start Year
1936 1
Core Tenet
Aggregate demand drives output and employment in the short run, and government spending or monetary policy can be used to stabilize the business cycle when private demand falls short. 2
Connections

Associated Figures and Events

1970s Stagflation, Events

Why this is disputed. Keynesian accounts attribute 1970s stagflation primarily to cost push pressure from the 1973 oil embargo and other supply shocks, which raised prices even as they contracted aggregate supply and slowed growth.

Source Wikipedia
Additional Source Wikipedia: Great Depression
2008 Financial Crisis, Events

Why this is disputed. Keynesian analysis of the 2008 financial crisis centers on the policy response required once the crisis hit, arguing that aggressive fiscal stimulus and monetary easing were needed to prevent the collapse in private demand from producing a downturn as severe and prolonged as the Great Depression.

Source The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics
Source History of Economic Thought Website: A. W. Phillips profile
Source History of Economic Thought Website: Arthur Okun profile
Source Wikipedia
Additional Source 1997 Asian financial crisis (Wikipedia)1997 Asian financial crisis, IMF structural adjustment response
Bretton Woods Conference, Events

John Maynard Keynes led the British delegation at Bretton Woods and proposed an international clearing union, a plan that shaped the negotiations even though the final agreement followed the rival American plan, put forward by Harry Dexter White, more closely.

Source Encyclopaedia Britannica
Source Wikipedia
Additional Source Euro area crisis (Wikipedia)European sovereign debt crisis, Less austerity, more investment section
Source The General Theory of Employment, Interest and MoneyJohn Maynard Keynes
Great Depression, Events

Why this is disputed. Keynesians read the Depression as a demand collapse from a loss of confidence, a reading Monetarists and Austrians each contest on different grounds; see the entity's own description for the three-way dispute.

Source The General Theory of Employment, Interest and MoneyJohn Maynard Keynes
Gross Domestic Product, Concepts

National income accounting rose alongside Keynesian demand-management policy needs from the 1930s and 1940s.

Source The General Theory of Employment, Interest and MoneyJohn Maynard Keynes
Source James Tobin (Wikipedia)
Source History of Economic Thought Website (New School): Jan Tinbergen
Joan Robinson, Economists

Robinson worked alongside Keynes at Cambridge in the 1930s and became one of the earliest and most committed Keynesians after 1936, before her later work moved into a post-Keynesian and neo-Ricardian critique of mainstream economics that set her apart from the Keynesian mainstream.

Source Wikipedia
Source The General Theory of Employment, Interest and MoneyJohn Maynard Keynes
Source The General Theory of Employment, Interest and MoneyJohn Maynard Keynes
Okun's Law, Concepts

Arthur Okun, who formulated the law, worked within the Keynesian tradition relating output gaps to unemployment.

Source Wikipedia
Additional Source Okun's law (Wikipedia)
Phillips Curve, Concepts

Why this is disputed. Early Keynesians read the relationship as a usable short-run policy trade-off between inflation and unemployment.

Source The Relation between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861-1957

Keynesians generally support unconventional monetary expansion as a demand-support tool when policy rates are near zero.

Source The General Theory of Employment, Interest and MoneyJohn Maynard Keynes

Wikipedia's own infobox names Keynesian economics as Kahn's school or tradition. He was one of the five members of Keynes' Cambridge Circus and one of Keynes' closest collaborators on The General Theory, introducing the multiplier in his own 1931 article that Keynes built into the book's policy argument (already recorded on this atlas via the Fiscal Multiplier concept).

Source Wikipedia
Additional Source Keynesian economics (Wikipedia)Article text

Held Differently

Business Cycle, Concepts

Why this is disputed. Keynesians attribute the cycle chiefly to swings in aggregate demand and investor confidence (animal spirits).

Source The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics
Inflation, Concepts

Why this is disputed. Keynesians read inflation as arising from demand-pull or cost-push pressure specific to circumstances, a different causal emphasis from the Monetarist claim already on record here that inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.

Source The General Theory of Employment, Interest and MoneyJohn Maynard Keynes
Weimar Republic Hyperinflation, Events

Why this is disputed. Keynes himself, in The Economic Consequences of the Peace, weighted reparations and the external transfer problem more heavily than domestic money creation as the crisis' root cause, a reading later monetary historians (e.g. Bresciani-Turroni) contested.

Source Encyclopaedia Britannica
New Keynesian Economics, Schools of Thought

New Keynesian economics preserves the original Keynesian conclusion, that demand shocks have real effects and stabilization policy can help, but replaces its ad hoc assumptions with explicit microeconomic foundations original Keynesian theory lacked.

Source Wikipedia
Additional Source Keynesian economics (Wikipedia)Article text
Stockholm School, Schools of Thought

The Stockholm School reached conclusions close to Keynes's General Theory independently and largely in parallel, not by following his lead, a genuinely separate account of the same insight rather than a derivative or a rejection of it.

Source Wikipedia
Additional Source Stockholm School (economics) (Wikipedia)Lead section
Supply-Side Economics, Schools of Thought

Why this is disputed. Supply-side economics emerged as an alternative to Keynesian demand management, arguing that expanding aggregate supply through lower marginal tax rates and lighter regulation, not stimulating aggregate demand, is the effective route to growth.

Source Wikipedia
Additional Source Supply-side economics (Wikipedia)Supply-side economics, relation to Keynesian economics

Associated With

The synthesis absorbed Keynesian short-run demand management wholesale as its own short-run half, the channel through which Keynes's own ideas reached postwar textbooks and policy.

Source Wikipedia
Additional Source Neoclassical synthesis (Wikipedia)Article text

Critiqued Here

Robert Lucas Jr., Economists

The 1976 Lucas critique argued that large Keynesian macroeconometric models, estimated from past policy regimes, cannot reliably predict the effects of a new policy because rational agents change behavior in response to it, challenging the foundations of Keynesian macroeconomic modeling of the era.

Source Wikipedia
Additional Source Robert Lucas Jr. (Wikipedia)Robert Lucas Jr., Research contributions

Rejected Here

Austrian School, Schools of Thought

Why this is disputed. Austrian business cycle theory treats a recession as the necessary correction of malinvestment caused by an artificial credit expansion, not a demand shortfall to be offset by government stimulus; Austrians hold that Keynesian stimulus delays the correction and can seed a new boom-bust cycle.

Source Wikipedia
Additional Source Keynesian economics (Wikipedia)Article text
Monetarist Economics, Schools of Thought

Why this is disputed. Milton Friedman's monetarism holds that controlling the growth rate of the money supply, not fiscal spending, is the effective and non-inflationary way to manage the business cycle, directly challenging the Keynesian reliance on fiscal policy to fight downturns.

Source Wikipedia
Additional Source Monetarism (Wikipedia)Monetarism, lead section
New Classical Economics, Schools of Thought

Why this is disputed. New classical economists blamed 1970s stagflation on Keynesian demand-management policy, and Robert Lucas's Lucas critique argues Keynesian macro-econometric models lack the microeconomic foundations needed to predict how agents actually respond to a policy change.

Source Wikipedia
Additional Source New classical macroeconomics (Wikipedia)New classical macroeconomics, criticism of Keynesian models

Long-Form Articles

Sources
1. The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money
John Maynard Keynes, 1936
  • Chapter 3: The Principle of Effective Demand
    The value of D at the point of the aggregate demand function, where it is intersected by the aggregate supply function, will be called the effective demand.
  • Associated Figures and Events: John Maynard Keynes
  • Associated Figures and Events: Gross Domestic Product
  • Associated Figures and Events: Quantitative Easing
  • Associated Figures and Events: Inflation
  • Associated Figures and Events: Great Depression, Chapter 22
    Keynesians argue the depression stemmed from collapsed consumer confidence and investment, caused by a widespread loss of confidence that led to drastically lower investment and persistent underconsumption.
  • Associated Figures and Events: Fiscal Multiplier, Chapter 10
    The fiscal multiplier is a foundation of Keynesian stimulus arguments.
  • Associated Figures and Events: Liquidity Trap, Chapter 15
    Keynes described the liquidity trap in The General Theory, a foundational Keynesian concept.
2. The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics
Palgrave Macmillan
Encyclopaedia Britannica
Encyclopaedia Britannica, Inc.View the Source
Wikipedia
Wikimedia FoundationAssociated Figures and Events: Joan RobinsonView the Source
The Relation between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861-1957
Associated Figures and Events: Phillips Curve
James Tobin (Wikipedia)
Wikimedia FoundationAssociated Figures and Events: James Tobin, Lead section
Quote, Associated Figures and Events: James Tobin, Lead section
James Tobin was an American economist who served on the Council of Economic Advisers and taught at Yale University. He contributed to the development of key ideas in Keynesian economics and advocated government intervention to stabilize output and avoid recessions.
View the Source
History of Economic Thought Website: A. W. Phillips profile
History of Economic Thought WebsiteAssociated Figures and Events: A. W. Phillips, Profile text
Quote, Associated Figures and Events: A. W. Phillips, Profile text
a hydraulic model of the Keynesian economy
View the Source
History of Economic Thought Website (New School): Jan Tinbergen
History of Economic Thought Website (New School)Associated Figures and Events: Jan Tinbergen, Profile text
Quote, Associated Figures and Events: Jan Tinbergen, Profile text
Tinbergen pioneered econometrics in the late 1930s, applying new statistical techniques mainly to Neo-Keynesian macroeconomic models
View the Source
Wikipedia: Great Depression
Associated Figures and Events: 1970s StagflationView the Source
Okun's law (Wikipedia)
Associated Figures and Events: Okun's LawView the Source
New classical macroeconomics (Wikipedia)
Debated With: New Classical Economics, New classical macroeconomics, criticism of Keynesian modelsView the Source
Supply-side economics (Wikipedia)
Debated With: Supply-Side Economics, Supply-side economics, relation to Keynesian economicsView the Source
Monetarism (Wikipedia)
Debated With: Monetarist Economics, Monetarism, lead section
Quote, Debated With: Monetarist Economics, Monetarism, lead section
criticising Keynes's theory of fighting economic downturns using fiscal policy (e.g. government spending)
View the Source
Keynesian economics (Wikipedia)
Wikipedia
  • Debated With: Austrian School, Article text
    Critics from the Austrian school (such as Friedrich Hayek and Ludwig von Mises) and monetarists (such as Milton Friedman) have argued that Keynesian policies distort market price signals through artificial credit expansion and deficit spending, leading to malinvestment, inflation, unsustainable public debt, and prolonged business cycles rather than genuine stabilization.
  • Associated With: New Keynesian Economics, Article text
    However, by the late 1980s, certain failures of the new classical models, both theoretical (see Real business cycle theory) and empirical (see the "Volcker recession") hastened the emergence of New Keynesian economics, a school that sought to unite the most realistic aspects of Keynesian and neo-classical assumptions and place them on more rigorous theoretical foundation than ever before.
  • Associated Figures and Events: Richard Kahn, Article text
    This became the mechanism of the "ratio" published by Richard Kahn in his 1931 paper "The relation of home investment to unemployment", described by Alvin Hansen as "one of the great landmarks of economic analysis".
  • In Group: Keynesian Schools of the Mid Twentieth Century, Lead
    Keynesian economics ( KAYN-zee-ən; sometimes Keynesianism, named after British economist John Maynard Keynes) are the various macroeconomic theories and models of how aggregate demand (total spending in the economy) strongly influences economic output and inflation.
View the Source
Robert Lucas Jr. (Wikipedia)
Associated With: Robert Lucas Jr., Robert Lucas Jr., Research contributions
Quote, Associated With: Robert Lucas Jr., Robert Lucas Jr., Research contributions
In 1976, Lucas challenged the foundations of macroeconomic theory...arguing that a macroeconomic model should be built as an aggregated version of microeconomic models
View the Source
Neoclassical synthesis (Wikipedia)
Associated With: Neoclassical Synthesis, Article text
Quote, Associated With: Neoclassical Synthesis, Article text
The neoclassical synthesis (NCS), or neoclassical-Keynesian synthesis, is an academic movement and paradigm in economics that worked towards reconciling the macroeconomic thought of John Maynard Keynes in his book The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (1936) with neoclassical economics.
View the Source
Stockholm School (economics) (Wikipedia)
Associated With: Stockholm School, Lead section
Quote, Associated With: Stockholm School, Lead section
William Barber's comment upon Gunnar Myrdal's work on monetary theory goes like this: "If his contribution had been available to readers of English before 1936, it is interesting to speculate whether the 'revolution' in macroeconomic theory of the depression decade would be referred to as 'Myrdalian' as much as 'Keynesian'" == History and aspects == Two of the most prominent members of the Stockholm School were Stockholm School of Economics professors Gunnar Myrdal and Bertil Ohlin.
View the Source
1997 Asian financial crisis (Wikipedia)
Associated Figures and Events: Asian Financial Crisis (1997-98), 1997 Asian financial crisis, IMF structural adjustment response
Quote, Associated Figures and Events: Asian Financial Crisis (1997-98), 1997 Asian financial crisis, IMF structural adjustment response
Critics, however, noted the contractionary nature of these policies, arguing that in a recession, the traditional Keynesian response was to increase government spending, prop up major companies, and lower interest rates.
View the Source
Euro area crisis (Wikipedia)
Associated Figures and Events: European Debt Crisis, European sovereign debt crisis, Less austerity, more investment section
Quote, Associated Figures and Events: European Debt Crisis, European sovereign debt crisis, Less austerity, more investment section
US economist and Nobel laureate Paul Krugman argues that an abrupt return to "'non-Keynesian' financial policies" is not a viable solution. Pointing at historical evidence, he predicts that deflationary policies now being imposed on countries such as Greece and Spain will prolong and deepen their recessions.
View the Source
History of Economic Thought Website: Arthur Okun profile
History of Economic Thought WebsiteAssociated Figures and Events: Arthur Okun, Profile page
Quote, Associated Figures and Events: Arthur Okun, Profile page
American Neo-Keynesian economist at Yale .
View the Source
Dissenting Readings (1 dissenting reading)
Associated Figures and Events: Phillips Curve

The Keynesian reading of a stable, policy-usable trade-off between inflation and unemployment fails once expectations adjust. Attempting to hold unemployment below its natural rate through persistent inflation only works as long as workers and firms are systematically surprised by the inflation; once they come to expect it, the trade-off vanishes and the long-run Phillips Curve is vertical at the natural rate, so demand management can shift the timing but not the average level of unemployment.

A dissenting reading, from Milton FriedmanThe Role of Monetary Policy
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